You’ve probably heard the phrase, “Never look a gift horse in the mouth.”

It means that you should be grateful and not look for flaws in rewards or opportunities.

But what if that gift horse needs serious orthodontic work? Or what if it swallowed a smaller, faster, stronger gift horse?

Well, we think it’s time to play gift horse dentist.

The coming wave of Bitcoin ETF approvals holds unrelenting focus, but is it really the best thing for crypto?

Espresso Shots

☕️ Solana’s Big Rally

Solana rose more than 20% on Wednesday, rising 33% in the past week, according to data from CoinGecko.

And SOL is showing no signs of stopping. Analysts at VanEck are even predicting a 10,600% increase in the coming years.

In fact, SOL is currently the best-performing asset in crypto. Though yes, Bitcoin is cornering the market with dominance of more than 52%, but it’s only gained 30% in the past 30 days, while Solana has shot up 88%.

This may be the most powerful Halloweekend rally that doesn’t involve a covert trip to the guest bathroom.

☕️ Betting on Bankman-Fried

Polymarket, the blockchain-backed betting and predictions platform, predicts a 59% chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be found guilty on all seven charges.

As of Thursday morning, contracts were trading at 59 cents with a “yes” reply to the prompt, “SBF guilty of all charges?”

Currently, it’s a gamble far overshadowed by sports betting, as only $4,512 has been wagered on the outcome of the trial.

Yeah, we’ll take some of that action. But to cover the spread, we’ll need SBF to get at least three stick-and-poke tattoos in his first year of prison.

☕️ UK Recruiting Crypto Investigators

In its latest effort to shore up crypto law enforcement, the U.K. is setting up a new cybercrime team.

A job posting on England’s National Crime Agency’s website revealed that the British government is looking for a team of six seasoned crypto investigators to either sit on the National Cyber Crime Unit (NCCU) or the Digital Asset Team.

“The role will be dedicated to a proactive cryptocurrency remit with the right tools and capabilities to target UK(-)based subjects along with supporting colleagues with specialist advice and guidance,” reads the posting.

Candidates are being unofficially urged to disclose in their cover letters whether or not they would be “willing to come out of retirement for one last job.”

Polled Brew

Spilling the Beans

Could the Banks Betray Bitcoin? 🏦 ⚔️

Like Jim and Pam on “The Office” or Sam and Diane on “Cheers,” the potential wave of Bitcoin Spot ETF applications has become crypto’s greatest “Will They Won’t They?”

And we’ve been excited about this development for crypto because it means that, potentially, trillions of dollars will pour into the space, as well as a significantly wider investor pool.

Curious investors will be able to access crypto through shares on the Exchange Traded Funds while limiting their exposure to some of crypto’s more radical volatility.

But as TradFi enters crypto in a big way, it might ruffle some feathers.

Consider BlackRock, one of the most publicized Bitcoin Spot ETF applications.

BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager. It’s a Wall Street monolith. It doesn’t get much more traditional finance than BlackRock.

But does that run counter to the ideals behind crypto’s founding?

Crypto was created in 2008 as an answer to an unfair and unjust banking system that has led to all of the world’s greatest financial crises.

Crypto was meant to be something new, decentralized, and radically different. But if the majority of the world’s Bitcoin is purchased by BlackRock, no matter how much it rockets the price, have we just come back to square one?

Does this emerging partnership between TradFi and DeFi entirely defeat the point of crypto?

Not exactly.

With an Exchange Traded Fund, investors are granted an indirect entry point into crypto, yes.

And even if they’re not trading crypto directly, investors’ activity on those funds will pour liquidity into the crypto market.

A higher liquidity simply means that the market will have more enthusiastic buyers and sellers. That means a crypto market that doesn’t just function faster and more smoothly, but one that’s significantly more profitable.

Now, some crypto mining firms have voiced concerns about the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, namely, that these funds will create new investment opportunities that will shift focus and support from crypto mining investments.

“Over the past few years, mining companies have been used as proxies to get access to Bitcoin exposure in the public markets,” Alex Altman, CFA and Senior Manager of Corporate Development at Foundry, told Decrypt. “It will be interesting to see how these new ETF vehicles will impact public miner valuations as investors will now have a more direct, cost-effective way to access the asset class.”

Yes, though ETF approval will reinvigorate the crypto market, it will also certainly shape things up.

But for those nervous that the titanic presence of firms like BlackRock or Grayscale will result in TradFi having too much control, we’re here to tell you not to worry.

Yes, those funds will offer a centralized starting point, but the nature of Bitcoin and crypto won’t change.

All of those potential ETFs function on “proof-of-work” systems, which means that ultimately the control rests in the hands of the miners, not the TradFi giants.

If Covid taught us anything, it’s the value of essential workers, and crypto miners are the garbagemen, nurses, and teachers of the crypto ecosystem.

Yes, mining firms may be concerned about shifting investment potential, but they can rest easy knowing that their roles are assured.

A big change is coming to crypto, that’s certain, but it’s not a change that would offend the ideals of the pseudonymous master, Satoshi Nakamoto.

If your office gets a coffee vending machine that serves Starbucks Pike Roast, the way you access coffee every day is fundamentally changed. You’re not going across the street anymore but guess what, you’re still drinking Starbucks coffee.

Growth means change. And we’d like to think that whoever or wherever Nakamoto is, they’d understand that this institutional involvement is just the next phase in crypto’s future.

So yes, we’re still all for the upcoming wedding of TradFi and Crypto.

And if they decide to leave in the section about objections and a call to “speak now or forever hold your peace,” we’re just going to smile and nod our heads for the long, uncomfortable silence.

Crypto 101

Three Steps and a Stumble: A stumble is a short-term decrease in an asset’s value.

The “Three Steps and a Stumble” rule is a financial principle that predicts that assets across the wider market will drop following three increases in the Federal Reserve’s discount rate.

The Last Sip

The Last Sip: Yes, it’s fun to wager on the outcome of the Sam Bankman-Fried trial, but as serious investors, we’re much more interested in knowing when shares of the Adderall that SBF will sell in the prison yard become publicly traded.

Stay Caffeinated,

Coffee & Crypto Team

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.